First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40
When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13
But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way. But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.
Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.
Who you got?
Stay Sharp! /Sammy
at the moment
ReplyDeleteLisicki @1.47
Bartoli @3,05
"Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final."
this means that Lisicki Price rises?
I dont know how the market will react. 1.47 is around 68% favorite. I did calculations if bartoli was to play lisicki or radwanska before they played today and for me Bartoli-Lisicki should be more around evens. Bartoli even slight favorite wouldn't be strange at all in my world. How I value players usually don't effect the market unfortunately ;)
DeleteGL!
Thanks! :)
ReplyDelete