Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Wimbledon day 3

Today the market and I isn't at the same page at all. To me there is lot of wierd prices.

Undervalued womens: Lucic-Baroni, Birnerova, Cetkovska, Petkovic, Muguruza, Bartoli, Shvedova, Giorgi, Dolonc

Undervalued mens: Kuznetsov, Verdasco, Ram, De Schepper

I'm not gonna take a position pre-match in any of these matches. But i will be looking to trade in favor of these. I wouldn't be suprised at all if we see a couple of "upsets" today.

Medical Timeout (MTO)
For the super favorites Azarenka and Sharapova it shouldn't be any problem to get into the next round. But you should consider Azarenka's nasty fall last match have created somewhat of an buzz if she is fit or not. So taking this in consideration. Market could go absolute bananas if she takes an medical again or makes another nasty fall. Which you always should consider when trading. Try to assess possibilities for trainer and work that in your favor when trading. I try to take this in consideration before matches.

Laying a player taking a MTO is usually very profitable if you can get on early. There after 8-9 of 10 (I have not data to back this up, this is my general assessment) there is huge value on backing the player that is "hurt". Try to think in terms of if she or he where injured so badly wouldn't they already have forfeited the match. So many times market have overreacted several 100% percent in just speculations in a fortfeit.

It's not easy to trade a market when someone have taken a big fall or are obviously injured. But there is loads of money to be made on fear and greed generated in these circumastances.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

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